Worrying about Iran

When I talk to people over here about the dangers posed by a nuclear Iran they seem quite sanguine about it. I think they’ve all pretty much absorbed the BBC line, most succinctly put by John Simpson in his Global Predictions for 2006:

Iran will take its nuclear ambitions further, and its negotiations with the European countries will seem more and more pointless. President Ahmadinejad will, however, start to lose favour in Iran, and the political opposition to him will grow.

To my mind, that’s wishful thinking.

My fear is that Iran’s nuclear ambitions will remain unchecked and that Israel, threatened by the imminent prospect of Iranian nuclear weapons, will want to act to destroy or significantly disrupt Iran’s nuclear program. Israel is not capable of doing so using conventional weapons; the only country with the necessary conventional capability is the US.

Will we act, and if not, what are the risks of inaction?

Winds of Change addresses the issue head on with an essay by Thomas Holsinger (The Case for Invading Iran) and posts from Joe Katzman and Marc Danziger.