Bad blogging day

My apologies to any bloggers who received spurious trackbacks from me, yesterday. I was deleting some half-written draft posts and accidentally published a few of them by mistake.

Sorry, guys.

Thought for the day

"Depression is caused not by submitting to our circumstances but by our anger with ourselves for doing so."

Lewis Wolpert.

BBC bias

Via BBBC: Bias at the BBC? Shome mistake shurely?

In the ghetto

Via PooterGeek's web wandering: Shreena's Live Journal provides an insight into life in a close-knit Indian community in North London.

Most of my extended family live in what could be called a "ghetto" in North London - i.e. almost everyone in their area is Indian (with some Jewish streets) and everyone they socialise with. I'm somewhat at a loss as to what to think about it. On the one hand, I do find it genuinely shocking that my cousins went to schools where there was no mixing between different races and, even more shocking, that this continued at their universities. But, on the other hand, I don't get any sense from my extended family that they wanted, at any point, to "mix" more with whites and it's very clear that they actively avoid blacks and muslims.

It's worth reading the whole thing, though I'd take issue with the idea that the community where Shreena's extended family live "could be called a 'ghetto'." It sounds like an insular community, for sure, but it doesn't come across like a ghetto.

This is a ghetto.

Adventures in Wonderland

Supposedly, when Captain Ed uses a word it means just what Oliver Willis chooses it to mean - neither more or less.

Well, Jeff Goldstein's got something to say about that in a couple of posts on "moribund intentionalism and the death of the author".

Read 'em both.

Atlantic blowhards

Philip Stott has an illuminating post on Hurricane cycles and human hatred over at Envirospin Watch, including a review of the last two hundred years of Atlantic hurricanes, which emphasizes the cyclical nature of hurricane activity over the longer term.

He rightly concludes:

The idea that recent hurricane patterns may be readily attributable to single-variable human-induced 'global warming' is just not tenable.

He also has a thing or two to say about some of the newspaper articles that followed Katrina's aftermath.

Essential reading for the mitigated sceptic.

The Daily Doom

Talking of shrill polemicists, I’ve just seen the front page of today’s Independent. Here’s their lead story:

Super-powerful hurricanes now hitting the United States are the "smoking gun" of global warming, one of Britain's leading scientists believes.

The growing violence of storms such as Katrina, which wrecked New Orleans, and Rita, now threatening Texas, is very probably caused by climate change, said Sir John Lawton, chairman of the Royal Commission on Environmental Pollution.

In support of Lawton’s remarks, the article refers extensively to a paper published in last week’s Science. If they’re referring to the recent paper by Webster, Holland, Curry and Chang: Changes in Tropical Cyclone Number, Duration, and Intensity in a Warming Environment then I think they must have got their wires crossed somewhere, as the authors themselves conclude:

[A]ttribution of the 30-year trends to global warming would require a longer global data record and, especially, a deeper understanding of the role of hurricanes in the general circulation of the atmosphere and ocean, even in the present climate state.

Does that sound like the "smoking gun" of global warming to you?

Mixed marriages

Alice Bachini discovers that marrying an American is a social sin in some quarters:

Among certain Old World circles, marrying an American and moving to Texas are about the most outrageous, personally-insulting actions a person can possibly undertake without breaking the law. When you tell people, and mention that they would be welcome to visit anytime during the next half-century they will probably be alive throughout, they act like you invited them to a new colony on Mars, only more so. “Oh no… I don’t think I’ll ever go there.”

Merchants of doom

Jeremy Rifkin (author of "The Hydrogen Economy"), writing in today's Guardian, blames his fellow Americans for the devastation caused by hurricanes:

Katrina and Rita are the entropy bill for increasing CO2 emissions and global warming. The scientists have been warning us about this for years. They said to keep our eyes on the Caribbean, where the dramatic effects of climate change are first likely to show up in the form of more severe and even catastrophic hurricanes.

[...]

Katrina and Rita, then, are not just bad luck, nature's occasional surprises thrust on unsuspecting humanity. Make no mistake about it. We Americans created these monster storms. We've known about the potentially devastating impact of global warming for nearly a generation. Yet we turned up the throttle, as if to say: "We just don't give a damn."

The problem for doom merchants like Rifkin is that there's little evidence that hurricanes are becoming either more frequent or more severe. Take a look at this table of hurricane strikes to hit the US mainland over the last 150 years, showing the number of hurricanes by decade and the number of major events (Category 3 or greater).

1851-1860.....19.... 6
1861-1870.....15.....1
1871-1880.....20.....7
1881-1890.....22.....5
1891-1900.....21.....8
1901-1910.....18.....4
1911-1920.....21.....7
1921-1930.....13.....5
1931-1940.....19.....8
1941-1950.....24....10
1951-1960.....17.....8
1961-1970.....14.....6
1971-1980.....12.....4
1981-1990.....15.....5
1991-2000.....14.....5
2001-2004.......9.....3


[Source: National Hurricane Center]

If anything, the data indicates a reduction in the number and severity of hurricane strikes since the 1940s. Here's what the AOML's Hurricane Research Division has to say on the issue:

[It] is highly unlikely that global warming has (or will) contribute to a drastic change in the number or intensity of hurricanes. We have not observed a long-term increase in the intensity or frequency of Atlantic hurricanes. Actually, 1991-1994 marked the four quietest years on record (back to the mid-1940s) with just less than 4 hurricanes per year. Instead of seeing a long-term trend up or down, we do see a quasi-cyclic multi-decade regime that alternates between active and quiet phases for major Atlantic hurricanes on the scale of 25-40 years each.

Regardless of the data and contrary to the opinions of experts in the field, a lot of people are blaming Katrina on global warming. We'd do well to remember that many of the people peddling this line, like Jeremy Rifkin, are not members of the evidence-based community but shrill polemicists pursuing their own agenda.

UPDATE
And, talking of shrill polemicists...

Britblog showcase

Tim Worstall has the lastest Britblog Roundup, which is where I found Natalie Bennett's review of "War Reporting for Cowards" by Chris Ayres.

I've been looking for a good read: I've just finished "The World Within War", by Gerald F Linderman and I'm struggling through Michael Oren's "Six Days of War" - comprehensive but hard going.

And yes, I read a lot of books on war - you could say it used to be the family business.

Desparate measures

I sometimes find myself wondering what the phrase "racial equality" actually means, and how we'll know if we ever achieve it. I imagine Trevor Phillips, head of the Commission for Racial Equality, has the answers to both those questions - he certainly has plenty of suggestions for practical action. The problem is they all have an air of desperation about them.

For example, back in March, Phillips proposed that British schools should consider separate classes for black school boys - that would be 'separate but equal', I suppose. He also suggested that black fathers should be denied access to their children if they refused to attend parent teacher meetings - non-black fathers who exhibit the same behaviour would suffer no such sanctions.

Today, as the BBC reports, Phillips will give a speech warning that Britain is in danger of 'sleepwalking' its way into racial segregation. And he suggests new measures are needed to address the problem, including forcing "white" schools to take larger numbers of pupils from ethnic minorities - sounds like busing to me.

Presumably, in line with Phillips' earlier proposals, once these kids have been enrolled in the "white" schools, the black boys amongst them will be segregated and educated in separate classes. Or am I missing something?

I'm thinking the CRE may be looking for a new director sometime in the new year.

Simon Wiesenthal 1908-2005

From a short biography at the Simon Wiesenthal Center:

Wiesenthal once spent the Sabbath at the home of a former Mauthausen inmate, now a well-to-do jewelry manufacturer. After dinner his host said, "Simon, if you had gone back to building houses, you'd be a millionaire. Why didn't you?" "You're a religious man," replied Wiesenthal. "You believe in God and life after death. I also believe. When we come to the other world and meet the millions of Jews who died in the camps and they ask us, 'What have you done?', there will be many answers. You will say, 'I became a jeweler', Another will say, I have smuggled coffee and American cigarettes', Another will say, 'I built houses', But I will say, 'I didn't forget you'."

Theater time

Mac and I are off to the Tobacco Factory this evening to see "The Fall of the House of Usherettes".

Loosely based on a gothic horror story by master of the genre, Edgar Allan Poe, [...] It's the tale of a crumbling old cinema and the Usherettes, three ghoulish sisters who are guardians of the ancient picture palace and its secrets.

Mac saw some rave reviews of the show last time it was in town (which is about ten years ago now) and has always regretted missing it. Me, I don't know what to expect - these guys look capable of anything!

Anthropostology

Sounds like Norm got snowed with mail after his recent post asking for help with the Anthropic Principle.

On a related note: a recent correspondence published in Nature magazine proposed the Misanthropic Principle as a resolution to the Fermi paradox. It suggests the reason we haven't been visited by aliens is because we're really not very nice.

And there's me thinking we were mostly harmless.

On recovery

Recovering from long-term illness is a strange and surprising experience. Sure, recovery is what you hope for, but when you're really sick, you can't imagine ever getting better. Then, one day, you wake up and you don't feel so bad, and the next day is better and, before long, you realize you're well again.

And that's great, but it takes a bit of getting used to - long-term illness is psychologically as well as physically debilitating. When I was sick, I couldn't do anything, so I got used to doing nothing. Now I'm well, I've got to get back into the habit of doing things again - like blogging. And I don't mind saying, it's proving tougher than I thought.

Of course, I could always go back to pointless, incessant barking. It has its attractions.

World music

Unmissable: Mongolian throat-singer Yat-Kha with a cover of 'Black Magic Woman' on last night's Mystery Train with John Kelly. The track is 40 minutes in - catch it while you can.

He's also been featuring a spot of New Orleans music every night, last night he kicked-off with Archibald singing Stack-A-Lee. Sweet.

Here's the playlist. Enjoy.

Helping and hindering

A few days after Katrina struck, I noted that I hadn’t seen any offers of aid from the international community. Frankly, I was concerned that anti-American sentiment would inhibit foreign donors from offering emergency relief.

I’m pleased to see that hasn’t happened and more than 50 countries have now offered help and support.

Not everyone has been so generous - Nick Cater’s comment piece in today’s Guardian opens with the contention that “Withholding aid from the United States is the only way to remove its domestic and foreign policy blinkers”. And Cater (who incidentally is the international editor of Giving Magazine) maintains a singular lack of compassion throughout. Here are his closing paragraphs:

If America learned anything from being the recipient of others' charity, it would be worth every penny. But on aid, disasters, climate, poverty, race, religion and more, its failure to listen does great damage to its own vulnerable people and those around the world gripped by poverty, hunger or disease.

After 9/11, the world sent millions of dollars to benefit mainly better-off Americans. Our charity was not necessary then; it is not necessary now.

As Cater himself asked in another context, whatever happened to the humanitarian imperative to aid those in need?

Pure serene

Much have I travelled in the realms of gold,
And many goodly states and kingdoms seen;
Yet did I never breathe such pure serene
Till I heard PooterGeek speak out loud and bold.

Okay, so I'm paraphrasing Keats, but really, you gotta read the whole thing. Laugh? I almost choked!

Warning: Not suitable for people drinking hot beverages near their keyboards.

I have mail

So, not having checked my e-mail for some time, my laptop is telling me I have 283 unread e-mail messages. And all I can think is: "I wonder if that's a prime number?"

Turns out, it is. It's also a backlog. I'm getting round to it, though I was initially tempted to adopt the Solent solution.

Blaming Wal-Mart

I've heard Wal-Mart blamed for a lot of things, but John Harris (writing in yesterday's Guardian) comes up with a new one on me.

In the States, a recent survey by the National Endowment for the Arts revealed that the percentage of people aged 18 to 24 with experience of reading novels, poetry or plays had fallen by a third over the last 20 years. Given that the same period has seen the rise to retail omnipotence of Wal-Mart, it isn't hard to join the dots.

Join the dots!? Is he kidding? The idea that Wal-Mart's rise is responsible for literature's decline is like saying that global warming is caused by too few pirates: correlation does not imply causation.

Unless, of course, you hate supermarkets and like blaming Wal-Mart. Then, it seems, anything goes.

Bomb scare

BBC Wales reports that army bomb disposal experts were deployed in Swansea today after a suspicious package was discovered on a local bus.

Judging from the image accompanying the story, I don't think the army were taking the incident too seriously. Either that or someone needs to explain the whole concept of Remote Control to this soldier.

A drowned city

I stayed up late last night watching ABC’s coverage of Katrina’s aftermath. The devastation is mind-boggling and the logistical problems facing the emergency services are daunting. A correspondent at VodkaPundit highlights the difficulties:

Imagine trying to resolve the 9-11 mess if NYC was under six feet of water, all comms were out, the interstates were flooded and the majority of the infrastructure more or less completely out of commission.

And then there are “the 2%'ers”.

Biggest behavior problems are among those who are going cold turkey and there are quite a few. Cops figure that is going to get worse and with it the associated problems.

Those problems are already legion. Reuters reports that Loiusiana Congressman Charlie Melancon says as many as 100 people have died in his district as a result of the violent disorder that has broken out in the city. And Louisiana Govenor Kathleen Blanco has warned that National Guard troops deployed in the area are under orders to "shoot and kill" to restore order.

Meanwhile, in contrast to large-scale natural disasters in other countries, I haven't yet come across any reports of offers of aid or disaster relief from the international community or NGOs.

It looks like America is going to have to deal with this thing on its own.

Us and them

The BBC reports that researchers have completed the sequencing and analysis of the chimpanzee genome. It's long been held that chimps are humanity's closest living relatives, having diverged from a common ancestor only about 7 million years ago, but now we can see just how close that relationship is.

The study shows that our genomes are startlingly similar. We differ by only 1.2% in terms of the genes that code for the proteins which build and maintain our bodies. This rises to about 4%, when non-coding or "junk" DNA is taken into account.

The long-term goal of the project is to pinpoint the genetic changes that led to human characteristics such as complex language, walking upright on two feet, a large brain and tool use.

As the study’s lead author, Tarjei Mikkelsen of the Broad Institute at MIT, says:

We still do not have in our hands the answer to a most fundamental question: What makes us human? But this genomic comparison dramatically narrows the search for the key biological differences between the two species.

Nature magazine is commemorating the project’s completion with a special web feature on Pan troglodytes, including some previously-unseen footage of chimpanzee behaviour.

Random quote

It has been established beyond doubt that the placebo-controlled, randomised controlled trial is not a fitting research tool with which to test homeopathy.

Society of Homeopaths

Random picture